The damage caused by the irresponsibility of Israel's government has been so rapid and extensive that it is difficult to sound a warning each time another layer of our national security infrastructure is about to fall.
Much has been written about the direct damage – from the north to the south – of the tendentious procrastination meant to thwart a deal for a cease-fire in Gaza and the return of the hostages and to pacify both arenas. The contribution of provocative Temple Mount visits, settler violence and the suffocation of the Palestinian economy as contributing to the escalation in Judea and Samaria has also been widely noted.
But the next potential victim – relations with Israel's peace partners near and far – has not received the same attention. Egypt and Jordan will be the first to be hit and to react.
Peace with Egypt was a historic achievement for Prime Minister Menachem Begin and the most important strategic move in Israel's history. It removed the most powerful and important Arab state from the conflict. Over the years, bilateral security cooperation has exceeded all imagination and serves the vital interests of both. But the government's decision to perpetuate the Israeli presence in the Philadelphi corridor, which means occupying the Gaza Strip and controlling 2 million people indefinitely, has provoked an unprecedented Egyptian response.
Egyptian security officials warn, in talks with their Israeli counterparts and with Israel's political leaders, of the grave consequences of remaining in the Philadelphi route. They say a continued Israeli presence in Gaza will be bloody, entail heavy casualties for both sides, destabilize the entire region and harm Egypt's security interests.
We have already seen the consequences of ignoring Egyptian warnings in the months and weeks leading up to the Hamas atrocities on October 7. Having been ignored the first time, Egyptian political and military leaders have taken their message public, signaling how seriously they take developments.
Jordan – whose peace agreement with Israel continues to constitute an irreplaceable national security asset, providing strategic depth for air and land operations against Iran and other malefactors east and north of Israel – is not as strong as Egypt and is more vulnerable than it both at home and abroad.
It is not for nothing that Jordan is transmitting signs of distress. The prolonged war in Gaza, the repeated provocations on Jerusalem's Temple Mount, the effect of settler terrorism and the economic strangulation of the Palestinian Authority have all helped push young Palestinians into the arms of terrorists and force the Israel Defense Forces to intensify its responses. This escalation threatens the stability of the Hashemite kingdom.
Instability in the West Bank also creates opportunities for subversion by Iran, which has manifested in the use of Jordan's borders to smuggle arms and money to the territories and stepped-up efforts to undermine the stability of the government in Amman. It does not take much imagination to see the security challenge if Iranian militias were to be stationed along Israel's longest border, and not the Jordanian army.
Leaders in both Cairo and Amman must contend with public opinion that favors breaking off relations with Israel and ending the peace agreements.
As to Israel's more distant friends – the signatories to the Abraham Accords, Benjamin Netanyahu most important (perhaps only) strategic achievement and one that has changed the face of the region – matters have grown tense. The United Arab Emirates has not acceded to the prime minister's repeated requests for an invitation to visit. Time and time again it has openly expressed its anger at Israel's policies while quietly suspending joint projects and reducing contacts with the government. The cooler Israel's relations with the United Arab Emirates become, the more Bahrain and Morocco can be expected to follow suit.
If nothing changes, the developments described above threaten to put an end to the chances of Israel's integration into a powerful regional coalition to curb the aggression of Iran and its proxies, and will scuttle the chance of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia in yet another case of a missed opportunity.
If an end is not put to the insanity that guides our government, the damage to Israel's security and welfare being will be felt not only now but for decades to come.
Nimrod Novik, the former senior foreign-policy adviser to Shimon Peres and special ambassador, is a member of the steering committee of Commanders for Israel's Security, a senior associate at the Economic Cooperation Foundation and the Israel Policy Forum's Israel fellow.